Forex Experiment

Day 17

Start Balance                          $12,029

Today's Profit Target                 $157.18 (Day 15)
Required Position size              149,500 (JPY), 126,800 (USD)

Trades

1     +149,500K     EURJPY      3.5 pips     (0:03)
2     +126,800K     EURUSD     4.0 pips     (0:09)
3     +149,500K     USDJPY      9.5 pips     (0:54)
4     +126,800K     GBPUSD    -5.4 pips     (0:58)

Total                         11.59 pips ($182.31)

End Balance              $12,211

Project Status

Day 17 end target  $12,476
2 Days Behind (same as yesterday)
$265 behind, or 16.66 pips on tomorrow’s pip value.

Comments

This was a relatively uneventful day. I got the required pips in a couple of hours whilst never being behind on any trade by much. The last trade I possibly could have waited longer to close out for a win but I wanted to wrap it up and do some analysis work without risking having to trade more if it went against me.

I’ve been thinking a fair bit about this strategy of stopping after getting the 10 pips whilst risking 30 pips overall for the day and I think I’ll stick with it and see how it pans out. I’ve now had 9 consecutive winning days and the equity curve looks very nice. No point in disrupting things just yet.

 

Day 16

Start Balance                         $11,831

Today's Profit Target                 $153.14 (Day 13)
Required Position size              144,400 (JPY), 123,500 (USD)

Trades

1         +144,400K         USDJPY          0.0 pips         (0:15)
2         +123,500K         GBPUSD         -3.6 pips         (0:44)
3         +144,400K         EURJPY         16.6 pips        (0:37)

Total                             13 pips ($198.06)

End Balance                  $12,029

Project Status

Day 16 end target  $12,315
2 Days Behind (Improved from 3 days behind yesterday)
$286 behind, or 18.22 pips on tomorrow’s pip value.

Comments

This day came tantalizingly close to being a disaster. No question about it, timing is absolutely everything in FX trading.

The first trade today should have been a winner but I lacked the patience to wait for it, we are only talking about 15 minutes here so this is a problem that I need to work on. I’m looking for a lot of counter-trend trades against fast moves and I usually expect them to happen quick, but they aren’t always quick and sometimes the same result can be obtained by the counter-trend move being a drift rather than a fast reaction.

The timing to which I referred to above was on the next two trades which I put on very close to each other. This was too much risk to have at the same time as it was during the European open, the hour before London opens. So the potential for big moves against me on both trades was high, I won’t do that again. Anyway I did get the direction right on both but the timing was bad and I had a gut-wrenching 15 minutes were I watched my pip count oscillate between about 8 pips down to 26 pips down at the worst point. It was hard to take but I hung in and they both took off in my direction at the same time. As it was late in the afternoon and I couldn’t trade for much longer I closed them both out happy with the 13 pip net profit. As is often the case I could have bagged heaps more. The GBPUSD trade particularly could have been easily closed out for a winner, but my gut had had enough after staring down the barrel of another 30 pip down day and I needed to finish up.

All up, a good result, another milestone achieved with the account now up 20% and I also pulled back a lost day today so the project is now only 2 days behind.

 

Day 15

Start Balance                     $11,656

Today's Profit Target             $151.15 (Day 12)
Required Position size          143,100 (JPY), 121,900 (USD)

Trades

1     -143,100K          EURJPY             -5.7 pips       (0:01)
2     +143,100K         EURJPY             -27.5 pips     (2:17)
3     +121,900K         EURUSD            0.4 pips       (0:09)
4     +121,900K         EURUSD            3.5 pips       (0:12)
5     +143,100K         EURJPY             4.7 pips       (0:04)
6     +121,900K         AUDUSD            1.0 pips       (0:41)
7     +121,900K         GBPUSD            7.2 pips       (0:05)
8     -121,900K          GBPUSD            -0.5 pips      (0:05)
9     +121,900K         AUDUSD            4.0 pips       (0:15)
10    +121,900K        EURUSD            4.2 pips       (0:01)
11    +143,100K        EURJPY             3.7 pips       (0:10)
12    +121,900K        GBPUSD            16.5 pips     (0:10)

Total                              11.50 pips ($174.70)

End Balance                  $11,831

Project Status

Day 15 end target  $12,156
3 Days Behind (same as yesterday)
$325 behind, or 21.23 pips on tomorrow’s pip value.
.
Comments

Despite the positive result this was a very bad day.

Trade 1 was another mistake, I thought I’d got this out of my system. I hit sell instead of buy. I’ve now reconfigured the oanda screen to make this less likely to happen but it is still obvious I’m not careful enough. At least this time I stuck with my rule of closing it out instantly rather than waiting to see if I could get something out of it.

Trade 2 was horrible. It really was going nowhere for a long time and the original reason for entry had gone, ie. I was looking for a quick rebound after a selloff. Instead of closing it out I sat and watched it go sideways in a 5 pip range for 2 hours. When this happens it’s almost certainly going to move quick when it finally does move and they can go either way. I paid a big price for not closing it out as when it finally moved it went against me super quick and I was done for 27.5 pips. Nightmare.

So at this point I’m down 33.2 pips, all easily avoidable. This is where I broke the rules. My plan is to call it a day at 30 pips down but the idea of going 7 days behind because of stupidity really weighed on me so after 3 hours of doing other stuff I decided I’d try and get some back.

Fortunately I then went on a virtually uninterrupted run of winning trades. 9 in total only interrupted by one ½ pip loss. I was very nervous about most of the trades as I was conscious of how far back I could have gone with another loser. Consequently I was scalping all the way and never even looked for 10 pips. The last trade was a joy. I was 5 pips down at this point and it had been a long day, having clawed back nearly 30 pips I thought it was worth trying to make it a flat day and I hit a perfect trade to end the day. I also nailed the top of the upswing, which I do like.

From 33.2 pips down to 11.5 pips up making the difference between being 7 days behind and 3 days (and only just over 1 pip away from being 2 days behind) has to be considered a very good day, but breaking a major rule coupled with really poor trading with the first 2 trades probably make it a very undeserving result. Being rewarded for poor trading and lack of discipline is potentially dangerous. I have to review the plan of stopping at 30 pips because with these very fast moves (which always seem to be going against me at the moment) 3 days of steady work can be undone in a matter of seconds. Alternatively stopping at 10 pips each day might also need reconsidering, but then the 10 pips per day is the point of the project and is what makes the goal realistic. In my previous dabbling with FX trading I’ve always lost money by trying to get too much out of each trade.

 

Day 14

Start Balance                                 $11,469

Today's Profit Target                         $149.21 (Day 11)
Required Position size                      142,700 (JPY), 120,600 (USD)

Trades

1     +142,700K     EURJPY     12.5 pips     (0:37)

Total                          12.50 pips  ($186.92)

End Balance              $11,656

Project Status 

Day 14 end target  $11,999
3 Days Behind (same as yesterday) 
$343 behind, or 22.67 pips on tomorrow’s pip value.

Comments

Just one trade today, taken between 11AM and 11:40AM. There was a bit more movement in Asia but still quiet compared to when I started this off. The EURJPY had made a very steady rise from 157 to 157.80 since midnight yesterday through to 9AM this morning. When I logged on at 10AM it had started a pullback and retraced to 157.50. This looked like ‘obvious’ support being that it was the last point at which a bit of resistance was hit on the way up and of course it’s a nice round number. I bought at 157.51 on the first green candle after temporarily popping through 157.50. It faithfully turned around and started moving back up, after 25 minutes it looked like it might have stalled and I was about to close it for a small profit when it spiked up 14 pips. I managed to quickly close it out for 12.5 pips and then watched it go nowhere after that. 1 hour later it was back at 157.50. I didn’t get the top, I’m a bit obsessed with catching tops, but I got half of the move which was 25 pips in total from swing low to swing high.

 

Day 13

Start Balance                         $11,288

Today's Profit Target               $147.28
Required Position size             139,600 (JPY), 118,300 (USD), 60,400 (GBP)

Trades

1     +139,600K     USDJPY         -3.3 pips     (5:11)
2     +118,300K     EURUSD        -0.7 pips     (2:32)
3     +118,300K     EURUSD         5.6 pips     (0:12)
4     +139,600K     GBPJPY          5.0 pips     (0:01)
5     -60,400K        EURGBP        -1.9 pips    (0:18)
6     +139,600K     EURJPY          3.1 pips     (0:07)
7     +118,300K     EURUSD         -7.2 pips    (0:07)
8     -118,300K     AUDUSD         6.0 pips     (0:16)
9     +139,600K     EURJPY          5.6 pips     (0:36)

Total                             12.19 pips ($181.54)

End Balance                   $11,469

Project Status 

Day 13 end target  $11,844
3 Days Behind (same as yesterday) 
$374 behind, or 25 pips on tomorrow’s pip value.

Comments

Felt a bit flat today and didn’t feel confident on many of the trades. I really thought the winning run was going to come to an end especially after trade 7. The EURUSD was very messy and I should have stayed away from it as it was very erratic. The trade of the day was the USDJPY but I just couldn’t bring myself to enter it at the right time. I missed the first big move and then fear kept me out for the rest of it’s move. As is becoming a pattern there wasn’t much action during the Asian hours and only the first two trades were taken in that time. The rest were during the approach and open of Europe and with the exception of the last trade, which I waited patiently for the pips, they were all scalping pips and were over with in minutes.

I did try something new with the EURGBP trying to predict it’s movement based on the momentum and direction of the GBPUSD & EURUSD, this didn’t work very well and needs more analysis.

A satisfactory result without any comfortable feeling trading, with the few extra pips edging me closer to catching up one of the lost days.

 

Day 12

Start Balance                              $11,125

Today's Profit Target                    $143.5
Required Position size                  135,800 (JPY), 116,000 (USD)

Trades

1         +117,300K        EURUSD       0.4 pips     (4:17)
2         -138,300K         EURJPY       4.5 pips     (0:07)
3         +138,300K        EURJPY        6.4 pips     (0:01)

Total                                      11.29 pips ($162.31)

End Balance                          $11,288

Project Status

Day 12 end target $11,690
3 Days Behind (same as yesterday)

Comments

The markets have really quietened down a lot of over the last week and the Asian session is seeing little action. The consistent large ranging activity, in the JPY particularly, has almost gone and it is becoming very hard to find good opportunities. Consequently the best chances are coming near to, and at the start of, the European and London sessions which offer good breakout or retracement trades.

The EURUSD trade was taken during the Asian session and went nowhere.

The two EURJPY trades were very quick counter trend trades against quick moves.

 

Day 11

Start Balance                      $10,956

Today's Profit Target            $143.5
Required Position size          135,800 (JPY), 116,000 (USD)

Trades

1     -135,800K     USDJPY      8.0 pips     (0:06)
2     -116,000K     GBPUSD     3.8 pips     (0:02)

Total                                    11.8 pips ( $169.31 )

End Balance                        $11,125

Project Status

Day 11 end target $11,539
3 Days Behind (same as yesterday)

Comments

To me, today was the perfect example of what trading is all about. Freedom basically. What other job in the world allows you to rock up at 1PM, and still be able to get the job done without anyone making your life difficult. Last night I played in the freeroll on pokerroom and for the first time I made the final table. 1,542 people entered last night, of which admitedly 500 or so are either zombies, crazy or just plain rubbish at poker, and after 4 ½ hours (from 11PM to 3:30AM) I finished in a very respectable 4^th place. The rewards for my effort? The grandiose sum of $7. Certainly won’t be getting rich from freerolls any time soon. Anyway the satisfaction of getting to the final table in such a massive field was reward in itself. So what’s the point? Well after going to bed at nearly 4AM there was no way I was going to get up and trade, so after taking the kids to school it was back to bed for me.

I got to the screens just after 1PM but couldn’t really see any opportunities so I just waited it out until the European markets started to open. I was really worried today as the daily pattern of my trading so far has been WLWWLWWLWW so I was jinxing myself into expecting a loser. Anyway in a very stress free 8 minutes of trade time I picked off two countertrend pullbacks and quit for the day. Very nice. No greed today, like yesterday. I just took the required offerings and packed up.

I’m still three days behind but I’m not going to chase it, I’m just going to try and catch up through stealth. Despite being behind I hit a significant milestone today, and that is that my account is now up just over 10%, which is nice seeing as how it takes 2 years in the bank to get that return.

 

Day 10

Start Balance                           $10,775

Today's Profit Target                 $141.64
Required Position size               133,400 (JPY), 113,500 (USD)

Trades

1    +132,000K        USDJPY        -1.0 pips          (0:15)
2    +113,500K        GBPUSD       8.8 pips         (0:53)
3    +133,400K        USDJPY        5.0 pips          (0:02)

Total                                     12.8 pips ( $180.90 )

End Balance                          $10,956

Project Status

Day 10 end target $11,390
3 Days Behind (same as yesterday)

Comments

Very quiet day today as it was a public holiday in Tokyo, took me a long time to realize that. Again this tells me I’m not paying enough attention to what’s going on, news wise etc. At first I was getting a bit worried as I was beginning to wonder whether this was what the ‘quiet’ Asian session would normally be like when the current high volatility dissipates. Nothing was moving at all today with the exception of the AUDUSD and I couldn’t bring myself to sell it as it was going down slowly against a new multi year high.

Trade 1 was a waste of time as there was just not enough movement so I closed it out as it was before I realized Tokyo was closed and I was getting concerned that the markets might be quiet waiting for an announcement. When I double checked the economic calendar, which I had already done, it was by looking around the other financial markets that I discovered that Tokyo was closed. After that I  sat tight for the rest of the Asian day.

Trade 2 was taken 2 hours before the London market opened, timing was good as it only went 5 pips against me (including 3.2 pip spread) for 10 minutes and then I sold it out after a couple of quick 5 minute bars up. As usual I missed out on a lot of pips as with patience I could have easily netted anything between 10-30 pips in the next hour. However if I had of held on all of the gains could just as easily been wiped out in 2 five minute bars. Worse was to come at 8:30PM the GBPUSD sold down 45 pips in seconds and I doubt an automatic stop order would have got any retail longs out before the bottom. Shows how precarious this game is.

After closing the GBPUSD I bagged a quick 5 pips around the European open. Happy with the 5 pips in 2 minutes, however there was masses of lost pips on this one. With patience I could have easily got 30 pips from this and possibly as much as 50 or 60.

I have to think about maybe closing out only half the positions on some of these fast moves and letting half ride, might be a better strategy. I’ll need to do some analysis on that.

Good day on the whole, only 3 trades, was never really behind by much and I got the required 10 pips.

 

Day 9

Start Balance                          $10,314

Today's Profit Target                $134.45
Required Position size              126,500 (JPY)

Trades

1     +132,000K         GBPJPY             29.5 pips     (6:34)
2     +107,000K         EURUSD            0.7 pips       (4:03)
3     +126,500K         EURJPY            11.6 pips      (2:08)
4     +107,000K         AUDUSD           -2.0 pips       (0:14)
5     +107,000K         EURUSD           -6.2 pips       (0:45)

Total                            33.57 pips ( $461.49 )

End Balance                 $10,775

Project Status

Day 9 end target $11,243
3 Days Behind (3 day improvement on yday)

Comments

Very good day today, much less trading providing more time to do other things than watch screens. I decided to try to be a lot more patient today and took 2 positions at the same time and wait them out as the volatility wasn’t as extreme as prior days. 2 positions are the maximum I can have with 50 times leverage, the balance that I have and the size that I am trading.

The EURUSD trade went nowhere and was never in profit, 3 pips down at one point I closed it out just above breakeven after 4 hours. The GBPJPY trade was much better, was down 16 pips at one point but the range held well and I secured the pips on a quick move up. As usual I could have easily got another 10 pips but wasn’t taking any chances today after yesterday’s greed inspired meltdown.

The EURJPY trade was a lucky escape really, I timed it very badly and ended up down over 10 pips and was thinking I was going to ruin the day with this one, however it turned and for once I nailed the top of the upswing to the exact pip. So terrible entry point combined with a lucky exit point resulted in a very handy 11 or so pips.

After 3 out of 3 wins I really should have known better but again couldn’t resist another couple more and dutifully turned in 2 losers to end the day. Damage wasn’t too bad and all in all got to be happy with over 33 pips to claw back some of yesterdays deficit.

Better discipline today, although maybe a slight lapse at the end, no greed, no trading mistakes, a handful of trades. Pretty happy.

 

Day 8

Start Balance                             $10,852

Today's Profit Target                   $141.64
Required Position size                  132,000 (JPY)

Trades

1      +132,000K     EURJPY         11 pips (0:02)
2      +58,000K      EURGBP        - 9.3 pips (2:11)
3      +132,000K     EURJPY         -14.0 pips (0:12)
4      +112,600K     EURUSD       - 5.0 pips (0:11)
5      +112,500K     AUDUSD      -11.0 pips (0:42)
6      -132,000K     USDJPY         5.2 pips (0:12)
7      +132,000K     USDJPY         -3.2 pips (0:05)
8      +132,000K     GBPJPY         10.5 pips (0:11)
9      +136,000K     USDCHF       -16.0 pips (0:05)
10     +132,000K     USDJPY        8.2 pips (0:25)
11     +132,000K     EURJPY       4.8 pips (0:14)
12     +132,000K     EURUSD    -7.7 pips (0:18)
13     +132,000K     USDJPY      -2.8 pips (0:07)
14     +112,600K     EURUSD     2.8 pips (0:16)
15     +132,000K     USDJPY      8.2 pips (0:14)
16     +112,600K     GBPUSD     3.2 pips (0:14)
17     +132,000K     GBPJPY     -23.0 pips (0:11)

Total                        -38.04 pips        (-$538.14)

End Balance          $10,314

Project Status

Day 8 end target $11,097
6 Days Behind (OhMiGod)

Comments

Today’s trading was brought to you by the words GREED and “TOTAL LACK OF DISCIPLINE”. What a nightmare. The day started superbly with the first trade an 11 pip win in 2 minutes. If I had any discipline at all I would have packed in there and then and did something else for the day. Of course I didn’t and the main reason was because I was a little miffed that I only got 11 pips. When I closed the trade it was showing 15 and I was very happy to pack in for the day with that result. When it got executed it turned out to be only 11pips, not sure what happened as the market didn’t look to have moved but anyway that’s what I got. From then on there was a bit of anger in my emotion instead of what should have been a satisfactory result.

From then on it all went Pete Tong. 4 losers in a row was teaching me the lesson I guess I needed to have. I couldn’t believe that I could pick 5 losers in a row so I kept on despite being precariously close to the hard stop of -30 pips for the day. The next few trades were better despite the bad luck with the USDCHF. The up trend in the USDCHF looked perfect and I couldn’t believe when it sold off, it went down 25 pips very quickly against the trend and I closed it out, 40 minutes later it had completely recovered and gone past my entry point and eventually going as high as 30 pips ahead of my entry point in the next couple of hours. What a rollercoaster.

By the end of the European session I’d recovered to being 14 pips down after being twice as much down at the start. At that point I really should have wound up for the day and this is when greed came back again. I took a punt on one more trade near the US open and got slammed. The GBPJPY is one pair not to be messing around with when already so far behind as it moves so much quicker than the other JPY pairs and effectively moves in 2 pip intervals.

Also another trading error today, not the wrong direction which is very bad, but instead the wrong size. Trade 12 position size should have been 112,600K not 132,000K and this was again careless not paying attention to the details, it didn't cost me too much extra but of course it was the worst EURUSD trade for the day.

All in all a very sick day that has now set me back 6 days. Hmm! At least I’m trading badly at the start when the money is small. But I’ve really got to get this ill discipline out of the system now.